Crypto values are climbing in all arenas. Bitcoin has challenged the vaunted $4,000 level on several occasions and now seems poised for greater things. It’s times like these that bring every self-respecting Bitcoin bull out of hibernation to breathe the fresh air and offer up their take on the present situation. The latest billionaire and Bitcoin enthusiast to step forward and be counted is none other than Michael Novogratz, a former hedge fund manager and known for investing $7 million in BTC when it was valued at $100 a coin.
No one knows if and when Michael may have cashed out his BTC position, but if he had been able to get out at its peak, then he would have pocketed over $1.4 billion in nice round numbers. He was moved to make his opinion known after Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao conducted an impromptu survey of his Twitter followers to determine if they felt Bitcoin was in a bull or bear market. A pessimistic two-thirds of the 15,000 respondents proffered up a “bear” reading, prompting Michael to interrupt the proceedings and predict that, after today’s bottom formation, “Next Move Higher.”
Confidence has returned to those analysts regarded as crypto optimists. While the skeptics have been forecasting doom and gloom, the positive crypto community has interpreted the latest price movements as confirmation that a true bottom has formed. Crypto Winter has come to an end. The low point of $3,100 was recorded in December, but in 2019, Bitcoin has tested the psychological $4,000 price point on several occasions and remained positioned for better things, as daily volume data approached $11 billion a day, a figure not seen for roughly a year.
Bitcoin gains to date have been roughly 5%, but its performance since the beginning of February has been quite impressive. It has steadily risen in a stair-step manner from $3,100 to $4,000 over a 45-day period, a nice 25% appreciation factor, while the S&P 500 index barely moved 5% for the same period. Price volatility has also been within acceptable limits, thereby reversing much of the negative press that this asset class has earned over time. The market appears to be finally maturing to a new level. Some analysts believe that institutional players are maneuvering in the background before their support systems go live over the next few months, not wanting to miss the next run-up.
As respected as Novogratz is in the crypto community, his previous forecasts have not always been on the mark. Some analysts still remember his prediction back in the mania that was 2017, when institutional investors rushed to the buying window without any fear or trepidation. At that time, he forecasted a $40,000 BTC value sometime in 2018. He soon revised his figures when the bears took hold, but he was sure that Bitcoin would make a comeback, charging back to $10,000 after six months into 2019. He was also among a host of forecasters that were sure that a bottom would form in the $6,000 to $7,000 region, but that, too, never came to pass.
To support his present thinking of a “next move higher” theme, Novogratz points to the many development efforts that are preparing a path for institutional investors to charge back into crypto-land. Fidelity Digital Asset Services announced last week that it is already up and running and canvassing institutional clients to take advantage of their initial offerings in the crypto space. Samsung and Facebook have also been in the news, and the Bakkt and ErisX exchanges, both fully equipped with all the bells and whistles that will charm the SEC and draw institutional investors in like flies, are soon to be fully operational. If all goes as planned, a Bitcoin ETF could then be in the cards, as well.
Has Michael Novogratz acted prematurely, as crypto cynics believe, or is he right on the mark? Time will tell, but for the moment, Bitcoin bulls seem to be calling the signals.